AI is changing Australia’s job market… these property markets are going to get hit hard.
A lot of people are asking:
“If AI is replacing jobs, won’t the housing market crash?”
The data suggests the answer is far more nuanced.
Here’s what’s happening.
How AI Is Hitting White-Collar Job Markets
➡️ Job advertisements across Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are now 30% lower than they were six years ago. That’s a meaningful headwind for housing demand in many white-collar markets.
Regional Job Ads Are Growing
But regional Australia tells a completely different story.
Over the same period:
- Albury-Wodonga: +20% job ads
- Bendigo: +36%
- Dubbo: +50%
- Geraldton: +30%
- Townsville: +42%
Many of these regional economies rely far less on banking, finance and technology jobs, making them less exposed to today’s AI disruption.
Why AI Could Push Rental Demand Higher
Meanwhile, Australia’s rental market remains incredibly tight.
➡️ Rental listings nationally sit 18% below the five-year average.
If AI reduces borrowing capacity, many households that could previously buy:
- a $1 million home may now target $800,000
- an $800,000 home may now target $600,000
- or remain renters for longer.
That increases rental demand while supply remains constrained.
Bigger Financial Buffers Than Past Downturns
Another statistic rarely discussed:
Australian mortgage holders currently have $14.9 billion in excess mortgage repayments sitting ahead on their loans.
That’s almost three times the $5.8 billion held six years ago.
So while some markets may weaken, many households also have far larger financial buffers than previous downturns.
Rising Construction Costs Support Property Values
Construction costs are another important factor.
Since December 2019, residential construction costs have increased 37.5%, creating a much higher replacement cost for housing and providing structural support for many property values.
Regional Property Markets Keep Outperforming
Regional Australia also continues outperforming.
➡️ Combined regional dwelling values increased 9.7% over the past 12 months, outperforming the capital cities.
Where is the greatest downside risk?
Sydney Hills District Property Market
➡️ Sydney’s Hills District has seen property listings increase 57% compared with three years ago, while demand has softened. More supply and weaker demand generally place downward pressure on prices.
Brisbane Property Market
➡️ Greater Brisbane currently has 16,973 properties for sale — still 43% fewer listings than 15 years ago, despite having an extra 720,000 residents.
Canberra Property Market
➡️ Canberra now has property listings 61% higher than three years ago, alongside weaker private-sector employment, creating a much softer supply-demand balance.
Regional Markets With the Tightest Housing Supply
On the other hand, many regional markets continue to see very limited supply:
- Geraldton: 50% fewer listings
- Busselton: 45% fewer
- Bunbury: 45% fewer
- Darwin: 43% fewer
- Townsville: 40% fewer
- Mackay: 37% fewer
- Albany: 37% fewer
- Muswellbrook: 31% fewer
- Warwick: 25% fewer
- Albury-Wodonga: 25% fewer
- Devonport: 24% fewer
- Cairns: 19% fewer
- Mareeba: 17% fewer
- Perth: 16% fewer
- Orange: 15% fewer
- Sunshine Coast: 12% fewer
- Fraser Coast: 12% fewer
- Airlie Beach: 8% fewer
- Victor Harbor: 7% fewer
- Brisbane: 6% fewer
- Adelaide: 1% fewer (all compared with three years ago).
Capital City Residents Are Moving to the Regions
Another trend supporting regional markets:
For every three people moving from regional Australia to a capital city, approximately four are now moving from capital cities to the regions.
AI Is Creating Property Market Winners and Losers
The biggest takeaway?
AI isn’t creating one Australian property market.
It’s creating winners and losers.
Markets heavily exposed to white-collar employment may face more pressure.
Markets with diversified regional economies, stronger employment growth and tight housing supply may continue performing well.
The question isn’t whether AI will impact property.
It’s which property markets will benefit and which ones won’t.
Invest in the suburbs that will benefit.
Book a Free Discovery Call With Realta with PK
If you would like to understand which markets our research team is currently active in and whether a property in Melbourne or elsewhere in Australia makes sense for your situation right now, book a free 60-minute Discovery Call with our team.
There is no obligation and no cost. Just an honest conversation about your goals, your budget and what the data actually shows about where the best opportunities are right now.
Co-Founder | The Educator & Mentor
I’m also a property investor with a $27m+ debt-free portfolio of residential & commercial property, generating over $300k+ net annual passive income.
I help people from all over Australia, by accessing a unique strategy that combines high growth high cashflow residential property, alongside highly profitable property development projects to help accelerate their passive income. I typically work with families, young over-achievers, and new Buyers Agents who want a predictable, DATA-led system to grow wealth and Passive Income.