🚨 Everyone is waiting for the property market to crash… but the data tells a very different story.
A lot of investors are sitting on the sidelines because of higher interest rates, tax changes and negative headlines.
The problem?
Many are focusing on the national headlines instead of what’s actually happening at a suburb level.
Here are the facts:
What Happened When Negative Gearing Was Abolished in 1985
➡️ When negative gearing was first abolished in 1985, it wasn’t just negative gearing that changed. Capital gains tax was also introduced. Despite those major tax changes:
- Sydney house prices rose 36%
- Melbourne rose 19%
- Perth rose 18%
- Hobart rose 14%
- Rents increased 20% over the following two years.
Today's Market Compared With 1985
➡️ Today’s environment is surprisingly similar:
- Population growth is around 3% (similar to 1985).
- Home loan rates are around 6.2%, compared with around 16% back then.
- Inflation is just over 4%, compared with around 9% in 1985.
- Oil prices were actually higher back then than they are today.
House Price Forecasts: A Market Splitting, Not Crashing
➡️ Domain’s latest forecasts show the market is splitting, not crashing:
- Sydney houses: -7% to -3%
- Melbourne houses: -8% to -4%
- Brisbane: +3% to +7%
- Adelaide: +4% to +8%
- Perth: +5% to +9%
- Canberra: -4% to 0%
This is why talking about “the Australian property market” no longer makes much sense.
There are hundreds of different markets moving in different directions.
Why Regional Property Markets Stand Out
➡️ Regional markets continue to stand out because they generally offer:
- Higher rental yields.
- Better cash flow.
- Lower entry prices.
- More severe housing shortages.
- Less new housing supply.
How Tax Changes Push Demand Into Affordable Property
➡️ The recent tax changes may actually push more investor demand into affordable property.
With reduced borrowing capacity and changes to negative gearing, many investors who previously bought:
- $1,000,000 properties may now target $750,000.
- $750,000 properties may now target $600,000.
That concentrates even more demand into the same price bracket first-home buyers compete in — particularly $400k–$800k properties.
Suburb-Level Data: Hobart, Launceston and North-West Tasmania
➡️ Looking at current suburb-level data:
- Many parts of Hobart remain mixed, with some suburbs falling while others rise.
- Around Launceston, virtually every surrounding market has been rising over the past 3 months, with many growing at more than 6% p.a.
- Areas around Burnie, Wynyard and Devonport continue to strengthen, with Burnie potentially recording 10–20%+ annual growth.
➡️ Commonwealth Bank also expects overall Australian property prices to continue rising over the medium term, even if Sydney and Melbourne remain softer in the short term.
The Housing Supply Shortage Isn't Improving
➡️ The supply shortage isn’t improving:
- Victorian dwelling completions remain around 2015–2017 levels.
- NSW dwelling completions remain around 2014 levels.
➡️ Population growth continues to outpace housing supply.
According to ABS and CBA data, Queensland and South Australia currently have the largest gap between population growth and new dwelling construction.
Migration Keeps Supporting Housing Demand
➡️ Even if immigration slows tomorrow, housing demand doesn’t disappear overnight.
ABS data shows new migrants typically rent for 3–4 years before buying, meaning the migration surge we’ve already experienced is likely to continue supporting housing demand well into 2030.
Stop Timing the Market and Choose the Right One
The biggest mistake investors make is assuming every market behaves the same.
Some cities will struggle.
Some suburbs will stagnate.
But there will also be locations that continue delivering strong growth while everyone else waits for a crash that never arrives.
The opportunity isn’t in timing the market.
It’s in identifying the right market.
Book a Free Discovery Call With Realta with PK
If you would like to understand which markets our research team is currently active in and whether a property in Melbourne or elsewhere in Australia makes sense for your situation right now, book a free 60-minute Discovery Call with our team.
There is no obligation and no cost. Just an honest conversation about your goals, your budget and what the data actually shows about where the best opportunities are right now.
Co-Founder | The Educator & Mentor
I’m also a property investor with a $27m+ debt-free portfolio of residential & commercial property, generating over $300k+ net annual passive income.
I help people from all over Australia, by accessing a unique strategy that combines high growth high cashflow residential property, alongside highly profitable property development projects to help accelerate their passive income. I typically work with families, young over-achievers, and new Buyers Agents who want a predictable, DATA-led system to grow wealth and Passive Income.